阿德莱德论文代写:澳洲葡萄酒业销售数据

2016-12-12 06:55

阿德莱德论文代写:澳洲葡萄酒业销售数据


澳大利亚葡萄酒业是世界的领导者。但在过去的三年里，由于经济环境、政府政策和其他因素的影响，它发生了实质性的变化。所以它是预测总销售行业重要的一些公司，或行业和公司可能进入的部门。杰克的酒窖有限公司，公司是一家销售各类澳大利亚国内葡萄酒和白兰地公司，所以重要的是要得到一些信息和预测之前，他们在这些复杂的情况做一些决定。要做出决策，就要分析整个市场的销售和自己的销售，这取决于预测模型。这些分析的数据是从本公司和资产证券公司网站。有必要尝试多种方法，然后选出最合适的方法。所以对这些数据集的方法可以是温特斯指数平滑法、分解法、自回归模型和ARIMA季节乘积。比较这些方法，我们可以看到，季节性ARIMA是最好的，所以我们选择这个模型作为最终的模型和足够的你的预测。在这里，我们建立了季节性ARIMA模型ARIMA（0,0,1）（1，0，1）4for葡萄酒和有马（2,1,2）（0,1,1）4白兰地。根据不同的季节ARIMA模型，我们预测2013。这些预测的结果表明，它是不可能的增长7.5%，因为全年增长的整个销售将是2.704%的葡萄酒和5.295%的白兰地。我们也应该注意到，白兰地酒的销售量与葡萄酒相比是相当小的。如果公司想实现这一目标，他们必须广泛的市场份额到一个非常大的程度。然而，这样的假设似乎是行不通的一个25岁的公司。虽然增长计划可能无法完成，但仍可以做一些事情来提高增长率。最重要的因素是市场，这意味着吸引消费者应该来作为改进的第一部分。消费者行为对公司的销售数据和公司的发展有很大的影响。许多研究集中在这个主题。巴特、P. J.； 院长，一（2000）发现，价格是影响消费者的决定，从零售白酒类商店购买葡萄酒的最重要因素。Larry Lockshin（2006）发现，低涉入的消费者使用价格和奖励比高参与度的消费者更大程度。因此，一个可行的细分策略应考虑利用葡萄酒行业的营销管理人员。因此，公司应该首先做的是市场的分割。试图将市场分为两个部分取决于消费者的参与的类型。然后对不同类型的市场做适当的定价政策。

阿德莱德论文代写:澳洲葡萄酒业销售数据

The Australia wine industry is the leader of the world. But in the last three decades, it has undergone substantial changes because of the economic environment, the policy of governments and some other factors. So it is important to forecast the sales of the total industry and of some companies, or the industry and the companies may goes into depts. Jack’s Cellar Pty, Ltd is a company that sells all types of domestic Wine and Brandy in Australia, so it is important to get some information and forecasting before they do some decisions in these complicated situation. To make the production decisions, they should analysis the whole markets’ sales and their own sales depending on the forecasting models. Data about these analysis is from this company and the abs website. It is necessary to try many methods and then pick out the most suitable one. So the methods for these data sets can be the Winters Exponential Smoothing, Decomposition, Autoregressive models and seasonal ARIMA. Compare all these methods, we can see that the seasonal ARIMA goes best, so we choose this model as the final model and adequate one for your forecast. Here, we construct Seasonal ARIMA model as ARIMA (0,0,1) (1, 0, 1 )₄for wine and ARIMA（2,1,2）（0,1,1）₄ for brandy. Depending on the seasonal ARIMA model, we get the prediction for 2013. The results of these forecasting shows that it is impossible for a growth of 7.5% since the annual growth of the whole sale will be 2.704% for wine and 5.295% for brandy. We should also notice that the quantity of the sales of brandy is quite small compared to that of wine. If the company want to achieve this goal, they must extensive their market share to a really large extent. However, such assumption seems impracticable for a 25 year-old company. Although the growth plans may not be accomplished, some thing still can be done to increase the growth rate. The most important factor is the markets, which means attracting consumers should come as the first part of the improvement. The consumer behavior can do much influence to the sales data and the development of the company. Many researches focus on this theme. Batt, P. J.; Dean, A (2000) found that Price was the most important factor influencing the consumer's decision to purchase wine from a retail liquor store.Larry Lockshin (2006) found that low involvement consumers use price and award to a greater degree than high involvement consumers. So a viable segmentation strategy should consider utilizing by the marketing managers of wine industry. So what the company should do first is the segmentation of the markets. Trying to divide the markets into two part depend on the type of involvement of consumers. Then do proper pricing policy to different type of markets.

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