悉尼Assignment代写:解释汇率

2017-01-25 06:57

基本面分析就是在解释汇率的长期运动是一个非常有用的和经典的工具，如货币供应量、利率、通货膨胀、贸易平衡等方面，直接使用（主要由两国相关因素比较）这些变量可能不会导致由于短期市场炒作干扰理想的结果。短期运动因此总是偏离长期均衡。在这个意义上，它是更常见的集中于一定的经济数据确定日期的公告。一些统计指标与上述基本因素一样有用。例如，PMI是一个经济体的经济活动的一个关键指标。同时，与市场预期相比较，如果公告与预期一致，则由于市场预期对信息的消化，运动可能继续进行，但也可能改变路径或减缓原有趋势。此外，两国之间的比较是必要的。如果这两个国家的货币对宣布令人失望的信息，更糟糕的会导致货币下降。在我的案例中，一个重要的因素是利率，因为在我的战略时期发生了两次重要的降息公告，利率是我国战略中最常用的一个基本要素。资本价格的性质更直接影响资本流动。根据利率平价理论，相对降低一国利率将导致该国货币将贬值。利率的变动是关于汇率变动的百分比。计算的交换用于判断顶部或底部是否已到达。

悉尼Assignment代写:解释汇率

Fundamental analysis is regarded as a very useful and classical tools in explaining long-term exchange rate movement, such as money supplies, interest rates, inflations, trade balance etc. However, the direct use (mainly by comparison between two countries’ corresponding factors) of these variables may not lead to desirable results due to the disturbance of short-term market speculation. Short-term movement thus will always deviate from the long-term equilibrium.
In this sense, it is more common to focus on the announcement of certain economic dataon certain date. Some statistic indicators are as useful as basic factors mentioned above. For example, PMI is one key indicator of an economy’s economic activity. Also, in comparison with the market expectation, if the announcement is in line with the expectation, the movement may continue but also may change its path or slow its original trend due to the digestion of the information by market expectation.
In addition, the comparison between two countries is necessary. If both countries of the currency pairs are announcing disappointing information, the worse one would cause the currency to decline.
What is an important element in my case is the interest rate because two crucial announcements of interest rate cut happened during my strategy period.Interest rate is one of fundamental element, which is more often used in my strategy. It is more directly affecting the capital flow due to its nature of capital price. According to interest parity theory, the relative lowering of one country’s interest rate will cause the country’s currency to be devaluated. The percentage change of interest rate is about the percentage change of exchange rate. The calculated exchange is useful in judging whether the top or the bottom has been reached.